Strat-O-Matic Basketball
The Defensive Card Numbers
By Will Kolodzie

Ever wonder what the difference is between the normal, sag, and close defensive cards in the Strat-O-Matic basketball game?  Breaking down the card chances illuminates the strengths and liabilities for each card selection.

Using the 1998-1999 Indiana Pacers advanced defense cards, we’ll calculate shots made (in terms of subchances), foul probabilities, and the variation in open/normal shot attempts.

Scoring Subchances

Outside
Normal    167 subchances
Sag       271 subchances
Close     063/163 subchances

The second number for the close defense represents instances where the defense double-teams another player on the court.  Using a close defense puts pressure on the opposing outside shooters, but comes with a risk for one other type of shot. 

Penetration
Normal    093/123 subchances
Sag       093/123 subchances
Close     197/227 subchances

The second number for the penetration subchances requires the absence of a designated inside man.  Using a close defense requires the presence of an inside defender.  Otherwise, opponents are likely to bypass outside shots, unless required, and change to the penetration shot columns.
 

Inside
Normal    178/288 subchances
Sag       004/286 subchances
Close     178/288 subchances

The second number reflects open shots.  Indiana plays great defense down low under the basket.  Unless one gets favorable “open” readings from the action deck, Indiana is going to pretty much shut down any inside player, provided they receive a sufficient number of rolls on the team defensive card.

Fastbreak
Normal    345 subchances
Sag       345 subchances
Close     345 subchances

Fastbreak opportunities do not change based on the defensive selection.

Three-Point
Normal    338 subchances
Sag       467 subchances
Close     210 subchances

Not surprisingly, playing a close defense eliminates some of the three-point opportunities.  On the other hand, the numbers for the penetration columns offset the efficiency of using the “close” card as defensive play selection strength.  In other words, Indiana opens “the lane” when attempting to stop outside and three-point shots, making the opponent penetration columns much more effective.

Total Chances
Normal    1,121 to 1,271
Sag       1,180 to 1,494
Close       993 to 1,333

The total chances for the defensive card do not tell the entire story.  Play selection depends, in large measure, on the quality of the opposing shooting columns.  Nevertheless, from these numbers, one assumes that a normal defense provides the safest measure of play in that it contains the lowest variation within the range of subchances.  Selecting either sag or close defensive settings with Indiana provides greater defensive efficiency but requires a greater awareness of the opposing individual cards in play. 

Fouls
Changing the defensive settings does not alter the foul probability chances, which remain consistent from team to team.  At the same time, encouraging opponents to select a higher percentage of inside shots creates a higher number of offensive foul possibilities.  For instance, using the penetration column, opposing players have an 11 percent chance of committing an offensive foul for readings on the Strat-O-Matic defensive cards.  That number rises to 16.7 percent for insight shots.  In essence, opponents have a higher percentage chance of running into foul difficulty by attempting more inside than outside shots.  That’s a consideration worthy of reflection, especially in the latter parts of a game.