2003-04 NBA Sleepers and Surprises

By Will Kolodzie

Many of the players on this list have interesting developmental questions.   For instance, present-day teammates of Brown and Crawford may actually stunt or hinder their development rather than provide an illuminating model of assistance.

Some of the players, on the other hand, may serve as complete busts or failures.  For the present moment, they do stand as having the opportunity for improving their viability in future sets.

With that in mind, this article contains brief descriptions of 20 players that hold significant value in the context of improving overall team quality, or perhaps represent excellent acquisitions for future seasons.

Note:  These player notes and evaluative comments find bearing with team composition in the current Strat-O-Matic set.   Free agency movements and situations arising as a result of trades do not factor into the analysis.  

Rafer Alston, G, Miami Heat
Now with Toronto, Alston has excellent passing skills and good technique for three-point land.  Get this guy late in the draft and hope for dividends down the road.  Deep sleeper, almost a throwaway.

Carlos Arroyo, G, Utah Jazz
Definitely making a name for himself via the Olympics, Arroyo provides serious points and assists as one of the bigger surprises in the set.   14.5 penetration scoring chances and a nice 9-18 dazzler reading on the break provide the primary benefits.  Even so, defensive liabilities could lessen his overall value.   The X-columns are a mess.  Some thoughts view Arroyo as a good card for this set with limited upside in future ones.

Kwame Brown, PF, Washington Wizards
Thank goodness Michael Jordan and Doug Collins left Washington because they weren’t providing much assistance to Brown.  Even with a good rebounding card for the left forward spot, the shooting columns offer few positive returns for this season.   The level of progression in three NBA seasons suggests a good player in the making.    The arrival of Jameson should prevent any big offensive upsurge this season.

Jamal Crawford, G, Chicago Bulls
A welcome return in 2003-04 after two season without much activity in Atlanta.  Now with New York, Crawford presents decent scoring columns and above average passing skills.   14.1 outside scoring chances, combined with a 2-5 three-point rating, allows for 15 to 18 points a game in most draft leagues.   You could certainly do worse at this position.   Don’t worry if Crawford takes a few steps back in subsequent Strat cards.  The influence of Stephon Marbury creates such situations.

Mike Dunleavy, F/G, Golden State Warriors
One of the biggest busts in his rookie class, Dunleavy turned up his motor as a sophomore in considerable fashion.   Impressive rebounding, 1/11 at right forward, 2/32 at guard, and above-average passing skills make Dunleavy a nice secondary factor for any team.   Warning.  Dunleavy performs much better in an offense that generates “open” shots.   Defensively, Dunleavy doesn’t help keep opponents out of the scoring column.  Dunleavy may not warrant his NBA draft day position but he won’t fail like so many of the Duke players.

Drew Gooden, F, Orlando Magic

Long term, many NBA observers believe Gooden offers more positives in a secondary role.   As of now, he’ll offers considerable playing time in a Cleveland uniform.   Very consistent over his first two seasons, Gooden brings solid rebounding skills, 3/18 at right forward, plus solid, if unspectacular, passing skills in normal and fastbreak situations.   This is a very capable reserve player card, perhaps with a little more upside in the future.

Larry Hughes, G, Washington Wizards
Four teams in five NBA seasons can stunt anyone’s growth and development.   Hughes possesses the necessary skills and attributes for serving as a good sixth-man in the league.   The 3/13 rebounding at guard plus the 26 steal rating help on the defensive end.   His shooting percentage did take a serious plunge last season.  So don’t expect a number of great outcomes with his current card.

Jared Jeffries, Washington Wizards

With excellent rebounding skills on the offensive glass at either forward position, Jeffries may have some value down the road provided he avoids further injuries that have diminished his first two seasons.  This player card has no shooting ability and gets into foul trouble, leaving a deep spot on the bench as the only worthwhile role this season.

Joe Johnson, G, Phoenix Suns
The Celtics gave up too quickly on this kid.   More consistent shooting performances could jump start this type of Strat card.   He’s still fairly decent outside with 15.4 chances and on the fastbreak with 20 chances.   He’s an all-star as a more dependable scorer, especially with a little more aggression on the court.   With Steve Nash’s help, it could happen this year.

Jamaal McGloire, C, New Orleans Hornets
Probably not available in your league without paying a high price, McGloire went double digits in points and rebounds in his fourth NBA season.   2/3 rebounding at center, even better at the left forward spot, keep McGloire positioned on the inside as much as possible.  What he misses in scoring attempts often translates into foul situations.  This is an overlooked part of the Strat card:  How often can you put the opposition into foul trouble.   Even with less than stellar shooting columns, McGloire still offers a top five to seven selections at this position.  Future card values do warrant improvement in shot blocking.

Zack Randolph, F, Portland Trailblazers
You know a good player when he fits into special categories.  Randolph is 23 years old and one of only five NBA players that averaged at least 20 points and 10 rebounds.   In this card set, Randolph doesn’t get into foul trouble and causes matchup problems for the defense as a mostly outside shooter with 14.05 chances.  Plus, you have to love the 11/33 rebound numbers at right forward.   Still, opponents will look for Randolph next year and he may take a step backwards.

Michael Redd, G, Milwaukee Bucks
Many observers believe Redd functions better in a reserve role.  He takes a lot of shots with the “2” and that’s not necessarily a good thing given the decline in shooting percentage.   The average passing and defensive skills don’t exactly inspire but he doesn’t make many mistakes either.   The 12.5 outside scoring chances means that the 3-5, 10 (11 replay) 3-point rating comes into heavy use.  A return to previous shooting percentages can transform a Redd card into an exceptional influence for any team.

Quentin Richardson, Phoenix Suns

For a number two guard, Richardson has few positives on his card in terms of steals or his X-column.  The 7/14 rebounding provides the biggest asset along with the pedestrian 2-20 position shot passing in the normal offense.   The low shooting percentages lower the expected impact of his card.   All the same, his effectiveness does increase with teammates generating “open” shooting opportunities.  This player probably sees the zenith of his card values with this set.

John Salmons, F, Philadelphia 76’ers
A solid right forward with a nice card capable of complimenting a team.   Don’t expect any serious offensive productions, but Salmons will steal a few balls and create some open shots for teammates while working in a reserve role.   This is a player capable of having a breakout season or falling completely into oblivion.  

Brian Skinner, F, Milwaukee Bucks
A big upsurge in points and rebounds places Skinner on this list.  The primary rating says right forward but Skinner operates much better on the other side of the court in the left forward spot.   The inside scoring column seems capable, not overwhelming.  Any further improvements depend on minutes and playing situations.   Skinner averages 54 games a season in 5 years.   He may have difficulty handling a larger role on a team.

DeShawn Stevenson, G, Orlando Magic
Like many NBA players, the atrocious field goal and free throw percentages dampen enthusiasm about his ability.   Frankly, he should have spent some time in college developing his skills to a more complete degree.   Still, this is a player making considerable strides and he might just develop into something, albeit not at an elite level, provided his percentages rise considerably.  Those holding the Stevenson card may not have the endurance to wait a couple of additional seasons.   This is a good time for getting Stevenson on the back end of a deal.

Etan Thomas, Washington Wizards

Making strides offensively and defensively, Thomas has that nice 13 block rating that may assist any team in late situations.  Thomas may offer some value in the next years as a reserve player in a normal offense.   This player card works as long as generating offense doesn’t hold as a major concern.

Gerald Wallace, Sacramento Kings

This kid received fantastic reviews in high school but has never factored into the game plan for the Kings.  Many people believe he has the tools to serve as a starting player for a number of teams.  We’ll see if he gathers more of a role in Charlotte. Other than a brief substitution in situations requiring an offensive rebound, Wallace contributes little for anyone interesting in winning in the current card set. 

Chris Wilcox, Los Angeles Clippers

Making serious strides in points and rebounds helps the cause.   Sharing time with Elton Brand doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in future progression.  Wilcox can gather rebounds, score modestly from the inside, better on the fastbreak, and then quickly get into foul trouble.   22.5 fastbreak scoring chances do offer some flexibility for those interesting in acquiring his services.

Jiri Welsch, Boston Celtics